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Introduction
The months leading up to the ten year celebrations of South Africa's democracy have witnessed intense debate over trends in the incidence and severity of poverty in the post-apartheid era. Reaching agreement over what has happened to income distribution and well-being has been complicated by errors found in recent official statistics. This has been compounded by the multitude of methodologies that have been applied to the analysis of poverty, some of which with popular appeal but of doubtful rigour. In particular, representatives of the South African government have questioned both the findings of both the official statistics agency and perceived critique by referring to improvements in social expenditure and the impact that this has had on the 'social wage'. Adapting and stretching a more cautious analysis (vd Berg and Burger, 2002), suggestions that poverty and inequality have increased are been rebuffed, and recent research suggesting that post-apartheid poverty strategy has achieved less than might have been hoped for is described as having a unspecified ideological agenda despite recommending similar policies to those said to be pursued by the South African government (Sunday Times, May 9, 2004).
It is true that at the outset of the most recent State of the Nation address, President Thabo Mbeki again placed poverty reduction at the heart of government policy, with the development of a social safety net as the third leg of a poverty strategy "potjie" (Mbeki, 2004). Later in the speech, we learn that this encompasses not only social welfare but also the delivery of services and infrastructure and that this leg provides the link between interventions hoping to boost the activities in the "First" and "Second Economies" thereby absorbing those dependent upon social welfare and ensuring sustainable poverty reduction. Social policy, that somewhat messy mix of policies concerned with welfare, protection, rights and access to essential services, is thus brought to the fore of South Africa's poverty reduction strategy and begs a more systematic analysis.
In this paper I am going to examine social policy expenditure in terms of its likely impact on the severity and incidence of poverty in the first decade of democracy. Although it is tempting to speculate as to the changes in poverty that might have taken place in South Africa during the post-apartheid era, the data that are currently available simply do not permit such analysis to be made with any confidence. Instead I will start by reviewing what we think we know, and then make mention of poverty analysis that points towards what might be anticipated once the official statistics have been corrected. I will then review the major elements of the 'social wage' to which the South Africa government has been allocating resources. Finally, I am going to consider what might be the implications if we were to seriously attempt social wage accounting.
Footnote:
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Associate Professor, School of Development Studies, University of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Inputs from Nina Hunter, Isaivani Hyman and Charles Meth are acknowledged, although the views and errors are those of the author alone.
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