Introduction and Executive summary
On 27 November 2002 the African Security Analysis Programme hosted a day-long seminar
entitled “Zimbabwe in turmoil”. The principal idea was to tap into expertise from within that
country itself, and a number of prominent Zimbabweans were kind enough to fly south to
share their insights, hopes and fears. Since then, unfortunately, an already grave situation
has deteriorated further, and expectations raised at the beginning of 2003 of the possibility of
a managed or negotiated transition to a new and more tolerant political dispensation paving
the way towards economic revival seem to have been over-optimistic.
To recapitulate: between December 2002 and January 2003, stories began to circulate about
approaches by leading elements within ZANU-PF to Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of the
Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), offering a form of transitional government in
exchange for the parliamentary opposition’s cooperation in amending the constitution to permit
a managed presidential succession and delayed elections following the retirement of Robert
Mugabe. Such an arrangement, it was felt, would open the way for a resumption of relations
between the international financial institutions and Zimbabwe, paving the way for donor
support to eventual economic recovery.
Whether these talks about talks had the blessing of President Mugabe himself remains
uncertain. Although he shortly went on record with indications that ZANU-PF should begin
discussions about the succession, it is not impossible that he sought in this way to entice
pretenders to the presidency to reveal their hands before it was prudent to do so. Part of the
deal under discussion, the so-called “exit strategy”, was to afford President Mugabe and
members of his immediate family and followers with guarantees that they would enjoy
immunity from prosecution for alleged misdeeds committed in office. Yet Tsvangirai’s refusal
to accede to Mugabe’s precondition for talks by withdrawing a legal challenge to the
presidential election result of 2002, and the apparent reluctance on the part of his supporters
to consider amnesty to regime which continued to commit the grossest violations of human
rights seem to have blocked this avenue.
Faced with growing evidence of popular disfavour and the willingness of large numbers of
people to defy the wrath of the authorities by participating in strikes and stayaways, the
government resorted to ever more severe repression. The authorities showed their
desperation by having Tsvangirai arraigned on a second treason charge.
At the time of writing it is uncertain how matters will develop from here. Certainly within the
ruling party there are those who wish to see President Mugabe stay on at virtually any cost,
so much are their own political and personal fortunes contingent upon his survival. Yet there
are others who have managed to acquire considerable capital at little cost in the economic
maelstrom, and who now desire a return to some sort of normality in order to enjoy their
riches. How long can the fractures in the edifice of the ruling party be papered over and, by
the same token, what would the MDC look like in a post-Mugabe dispensation?
These are only some of the questions addressed in this monograph.
We have been fortunate that several of the participants at the seminar were willing to update
their contributions to accommodate the rapidly changing economic and political scene. In
addition, Patrick Bond kindly provided us with a piece looking at some of the problems
inherent in an eventual economic recovery.
Chapter 1 by Brian Kagoro analyses the emergence of effective opposition politics within
Zimbabwe against a background of deepening crisis. He identifies the continuity of the
themes of violence and fraud that have been endemic to the country’s political life since the
19th century, and shows how ZANU-PF’s failure to transform the repressive colonial state
led directly to its inability to deliver on the promises of independence. He also points to the
contradictions inherent in the World Bank/IMF prescriptions of austerity and their simultaneous advocacy of neo-liberal democracy. Patronage politics and the emergence of a self-seeking
authoritarian political elite have been the partial consequence of the confluence of these
phenomena. After describing the antecedents and emergence of the MDC he speculates on
the challenges currently facing a broad-based political movement.
In Chapter 2 John Makumbe looks at the prospects for a transition within ZANU-PF itself. He
identifies tensions within the party between Mugabe’s authoritarian inclinations and a majority
of ZANU-PF supporters. Many of the centralist and commandist elements of the ruling party’s
style can be traced to its history as a liberation movement with Eastern bloc backing. Other
aspects of political intolerance are more correctly associated with the incumbent leadership’s
determination to brook no effective opposition to its dominance, as has been shown on
various occasions since independence.
The economic consequences of this situation are addressed in Chapter 3 by John Robertson.
After isolating some of the salient manifestations of Zimbabwe’s crisis, this chapter goes on
to analyse some of government’s attempted responses, and shows how inadequate and
even counter-productive these have been. Debt and shortages of foreign exchange
interrelate at the heart of the economic meltdown. Fuel and electricity shortages and a
wholesale assault on the commercial farming sector have had massive influences on the
ability of the economy as a whole to continue performing. This dire situation notwithstanding,
the author concludes that Zimbabwe could return to a recovery and growth path fairly
quickly, though the window of opportunity for this to happen is closing rapidly. He believes
that the co-operation of the international financial institutions would be an essential
prerequisite, however, and this would necessitate a fairly radical change in the political
leadership and the nature of the regime.
In Chapter 4 Patrick Bond presents an alternative view on Zimbabwe’s economic future,
arguing that the present crisis may present opportunities to break with unsuccessful
strategies pursued in the past. He contends that neither the exhausted nationalism of ZANUPF
nor the globally oriented neo-liberalism of the MDC provide adequate bases for the
construction of a just and equitable society in Zimbabwe. The author presents an outline of
radical policy alternatives that would meet the broader needs of society rather than serving
the interests, internal and external, of those seeking a deal between elites.
The final contribution, in Chapter 5 by Edward Lahiff presents a broader perspective on the
land debate, which in the case of Zimbabwe seems to have focussed on the plight of white
commercial farmers and (to a degree) their labourers. He stresses the importance of
addressing the fraught issue of land reform throughout the southern African region on the
grounds of equity and efficiency which, he argues are not always at odds with one another.
He questions many of the myths perpetuated in self-interest by large-scale commercial
farming, and argues that for rural poverty to be addressed, access to land has to be
provided. Many of the misperceptions about the rural economy, he opines, are the
consequence of a “colonial” mindset. There are also a number of myths about the relationship
of freehold land tenure to commercial success in farming. In conclusion, he argues, there is a
misperception that the issue of land lies at the heart of the Zimbabwean crisis: the latter is
primarily about economic collapse and political legitimacy leading to the abandonment of the
rule of law.
The dynamics of the current situation in Zimbabwe are so unstable that to make predictions
would be an exercise in foolhardiness. This monograph attempts to illuminate certain aspects
of the crisis. Beyond that one can only say with any certainty that the current situation,
economic and political, is unsustainable.
Richard Cornwell
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