a. vaccination against HIVb. prevention of mother to child transmission (PMTCT)
a. treatment of opportunistic infectionsb. anti-retroviral therapy for late stage HIV infection
ridding body of HIV virus
|Vaccine available in 2010 to 2015 time frame. Mother-to-Child (MTCT) prevention available now.
||Opportunistic infection treatment is available. ARVs (anti-retroviral) become available 2001 onwards, but coping with mutations is a constant battle which consumes resources. Mutants do not become more virulent.
||No current drugs available for this. May be invented through genetically engineered agents customised for an individual’s genes. Available in 2015 to 2030 time frame.
|PMTCT affordable in South Africa, Namibia and Botswana Vaccine affordable in 2010 to 2015 time frame.
||Opportunistic infection treatment affordable. ARVs not generally affordable outside private sector in next 20 years, except in Botswana where they are made available through government and donors as a “national pilot project” from 2002 onwards.
||Not affordable for next 20 years.
|The same for both PMTCT and vaccine, but scenario dependant: Good in “high road” poor in “low road”.
||Infrastructure not adequate for delivery for the next 10 years, except perhaps Botswana.
||An entirely new infrastructure is required. Not available for 20 years.
||Opportunistic infection treatment acceptable ARVs limited by side-effects.
||ARVs influenced by nutrition, discipline and hygiene.